Looking at the Wikipedia article on emerging technologies, I wasn't able to link "intelligence", "cyber" or "computer security" to any of the categories listed. Maybe Defense, but we are a supporting agency... we don't have boots on the ground (Wikipedia, 2021). When I conducted an Internet search for "emerging technologies intelligence" what I found all related to artificial intelligence (AI), which isn't all that relevant either. But let's discuss AI.
One thing that all of the readings this week, and in weeks past, seem to forget is that computers must be programmed in order to function. This means that a human must write code and information into being, so theoretically, no computer can ever know more than humans. They may be able to process information quicker, come to vastly different conclusions, and even be able to analyze data in a way that would take a human many lifetimes to achieve. But, their knowledge still doesn't, and can't exceed what its programming allows.
How many movies have been created over the years that show what happens when an AI begins to "think" for themselves. Most of them somehow destroy humanity in an attempt to save us from ourselves. Movies and stories such as these are probably what prompted Kelly (2016), and others, to write about technologies so advanced that humans lose their jobs and become obsolete to the computers and AI of the future. Kelly (2016) says, "I estimate that by the year 2025 every person alive - that is 100 percent of the planet's inhabitants - will have access to this platform via some almost-free device. Everyone will be on it. Or in it. Or, simply, everyone will be it" (p. 293). I respectfully disagree.
Already, between Generation X, Y and millennials, the usage of the Internet and Social Media has declined drastically. The spin that some writers put on the facts fascinates me. For instance, this quote is meant to prove that millennials are unlocking their phones more than any other generation! but if you look closely, you will see that is not the case. "During an analysis of smartphone users in the United States, it was found that Millennials unlocked their devices an average of 63 times per day, ranking only behind Gen Z smartphone users with 79 daily unlocks" Do you notice that the focus is on millennials, when in fact they are using their phones with less frequency than Gen Z users. https://www.statista.com/topics/2576/us-millennials-internet-usage-and-online-shopping/#topicHeader__wrapper
Now take a look at Gen Z, as mentioned above, they use their smartphones far less than the generation before them. The following data shows that while Millenials utilize the Internet for communication, shopping and keeping up with the news, family and friends, Gen Z are mainly utilizing it for entertainment purposes. gen-z-millennials-use-social-media-differently-heres-x-charts-that-show-how
So, I'm not convinced the sky is falling... That doesn't mean that the future isn't going to look different than it does now, it's just not going to be ruled by AI and networks doing the thinking for us.
One way to make sure this doesn't happen? Teach the next gerneration to do things differently, by example. Put down the phone, close the laptop, open a book and read to those youngsters, fight for their future!
Kelly, K. (2016). The Inevitable. Viking
Wikipedia, 2021. Emerging technologies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emerging_technologies
According to Canals et al., technology is also the tool that gives access to information to the new generation and empowers and excites them (2021). The evidence is in how children are familiar with tablets and smartphones and can probably engage in social media without the help of an adult. In other words, learning through technological lessons can make their lessons exciting rather than daunting. Teachers who engage in using these tools may even see the enhanced engagement and participation in their classrooms.
ReplyDeleteIvory,
ReplyDeleteWell, I can tell you that my 4 year old has been learning Japanese… apparently… as she can navigate a tablet better than I can.
I can also tell you that my now 18 year old daughter failed all her classes because she couldn’t engage virtually and online. She had zero motivation or get up and go. Zero. None. Even after therapy and meds, she’s still negatively affected by the online environment from last year. It’s not for everyone.
I also know many in the mid-30 range (my kids) who never use social media or the internet for much of anything.
Beth
That’s my 4 year old GRANDDAUGHTER 🙂. .
DeleteHi Beth,
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed reading your post.
Here are my thoughts. I agree with you on three points:
1. Yes, I don't think the sky is falling and we don't need to panic.
2. Yes, the future will look different from now in some way...not necessarily a scenario of being taken over by AI
3. We should teach the next generation to put down the phone, close the laptop, open a book and read once in a while.
Totally agree!
However, I don't think digital technology, social media, and other means of becoming hyperconnected will go away, even if some children put their phone down or close their laptops. Society might become so hyperconnected that to do so might be creating just another subset of people who would be isolated from the rest of the community or the world. It might be more prudent to teach the next generation to use their devices responsibly, to understand the power of a single word on the internet or social media, to reach out and touch the heart of another through those devices rather than hide behind them or be scared of them, to be empowered by the platforms and use their powers to speak out when there is an injustice, and to know when they have spent enough time online, so they know it's time to sit a while with family.
I think with a bit more education on digital responsibility the next generation will be just fine.
A question for you: since there was nothing on the Wikipedia list that sparked your interest relating to your field. If you where to come up with a piece of technology to enhance, improve, or streamline work in your field what would it look like and what would it do? In other words, what would you add to the list?
Thanks Beth.
Vivian
Vivian,
DeleteGood question.
There are technologies that would be highly relevant, and you can believe we have some of the smartest brains working on the problem.
Encryption algorithms… VPNs, Network Routers.
Interesting thoughts on AI. In the Atlantic article and podcast (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/can-artificial-intelligence-be-smarter-than-a-human-being/571498/) Derek Thompson describes the two kinds of thinking one is convergent thinking (like you mentioned, a programmer providing inputs into a computer and the computer will spit out answers, such as in Jeopardy) but he goes on to discuss the possibility for using AI for divergent thinking (creative, out of the box, imagination-type). AI, when used in a divergent capacity can come up with many outcomes using data put in that have not been pre-programmed. In the article Thompson discussed generative design as a method for using computers in a divergent thinking model which is not based on pre-programmed outcomes. One of the reasons scientists find AI so scary as it can be used for decision-making and take the controls away from the human. We have seen this is for self-driving cars making ethical choices on what to avert (person versus another car) or in the case of the Boeing 737 Max 8 which was preprogrammed and didn't let the pilot override the actions of the plane causing the planes to crash. These aspects of AI need to be carefully monitored by ethical leaders, not just the scientists and technologists creating the platforms/products. Leaders are going to have to start asking what can go wrong with my product? How does it decide? When does it decide? What are the overrides?
ReplyDeleteL.,
DeleteExactly my point. This is how computers decide that humans are the problem with pretty much everything and decide to destroy humanity 🙂
Ethics are able to be programmed into a computer… but can a computer really make that decision? Then again… can a human?
There’s an old ethical question about a train conductor who’s faced with either killing 1 old person, or 2 others… I can’t remember all the details, but what happens in a no win situation? Lots to ponder.
B
Beth, that train conductor problem is still being pondered - for autonomous cars - https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/06/self-driving-ai-death-decisions/
ReplyDeleteBeth,
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking about this a lot. Juma (2016) has a notable post about technology adoption, suggesting we tend to resist technology until we can see it will be convenient. This reminded me of Rogers's (2003) work on diffusion. Rogers outlines five categories of adopters: Innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. How do you think this fits into the reality of technology and where it is going?
Cameron
References
Rogers, E. (2003). Diffusion of innovations. (5th ed.). Free Press.
Juma, C. (2016, July 6). Why do people resist new technologies? History might provide the answer. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/why-do-people-resist-new-technologies-history-has-answer/